Admiral address Ukraine War at Town Hall South
When presenting his opinion on how the Ukraine War would come to an end, Adm. James Stavridis had a simple three-word answer, “I don’t know.”
But the man who served as 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO did have plenty of information to share about the conflict about which he said there may not be any great options for its culmination.
Stavridis spent 37 years in the Navy, rising to the rank of four-star admiral. He was the Town Hall South guest speaker Tuesday night at Upper St. Clair High School before a crowd of about 300 people. The topic of his lecture was “The Ukraine War and Global Geopolitics.”
Town Hall South is a philanthropic organization dedicated to bringing nationally and internationally acclaimed lecturers to the South Hills of Pittsburgh.
On Feb. 24, Russia began a military invasion of Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that began in 2014. It is the largest military attack in Europe since World War II.
Stavridis said the problem in the conflict is simple: Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he described as a frustrated and angry man. The conflict has not achieved what he’s wanted thus far. Stavridis displayed pictures of a lean Putin from years ago, plus a more current picture of a man with a puffy appearance that reveals his frustration.
“He’s very angry,” Stavridis said. “He’s not crazy. He’s not irrational. He’s frustrated with a plan that’s gone deeply awry. This invasion, thus far, has been a failure. He has adjusted his plan going forward because his original plan failed.”
Stavridis said the reasons are many for Putin’s failure, such as bad generalship and leadership, logistical failures and terrible intelligence.
“The Russians believed that the Ukrainian people would simply collapse,” Stavridis said. But instead of just giving the Russian people a warm welcome with perhaps a bottle of vodka, “they were welcomed with bottles of flammable liquids,” he said.
Stavridis said 12 Russian generals have been killed, as well as 15,000 troops. In comparison, in 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. lost 7,000 troops and no generals.
Why was it so important for Putin to invade Ukraine?
Stavridis explained the Russian president wants the resources Ukraine has to offer, such as natural gas, wheat, corn, uranium and titanium.
“It’s a big country. He wants it bad,” Stavridis said. ‘He is very consciously trying to re-create the old USSR, minus the Communism.”
One step Stavridis doesn’t feel Putin will take is deploying nuclear weapons.
“I don’t see Vladimir Putin reaching for a nuclear weapon,” he said. “He likes his life. He’s not looking to end the world. He loves Russia.”
Stavridis said keys to bringing an end to the war include the sanctions that have been levied, which he feels are going “surprisingly well,” and a military, led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a man who impresses Stavridis.
“He has stood and delivered for his country,” Stavridis said. “He has proven to be, dare I say, a Churchillian leader.”
Stavridis said the U.S. has given Ukraine all it has asked for with the exception of heavy aircraft.
His vision of what will result in the end mainly focuses on Russia eventually controlling the strip from Russia to Crimea, assigning a 60% chance of that happening.
He said that resolution will appease no one. It will not be enough for Putin. Zelenskyy will feel he lost the war. Plus, it would result in the lowering of sanctions.
Stavridis said he gives about a 30% chance to the war raging on, and about a 10% chance of a wild card resolution which could involve the unlikely occurrence of Putin being overthrown.
As he ended his lecture, Stavridis said he sports a Ukrainian flag on his lapel and donates some of his appearance fees to Ukraine, as any form of support can only help the country.
“These are folks like us,” he said. “They deserve our support.”
Town Hall South’s Daytime Speaker Series begins Oct 11. with journalist Dan Rather.